Five trends
This topic was created in the Miscellaneous forum by Gaurav_Aries on Wednesday, December 26, 2007 and has 8 replies.
...that will transform society - Richard Watson, FastCompany.com
1. Globalization: Globalization used to mean Americanization, but these days it means exposure to people, products, and ideas from everywhere. Globalization impacts on the sourcing of products and services, and on market-expansion opportunities.
It also means connectedness and mobility. Everything from countries and computers to gadgets and global banking will be hyper-linked together. In the future, this trend will accelerate even faster, thanks to devices such as GPS, RFIDs, sensor motes, and smart dust (all essentially tiny wireless transmitters and/or receivers of some kind). Hence privacy will all but disappear, but transparency and risk may increase.
2. Localization: Localization (or re-localization) is a perfect example of a trend creating a counter-trend. Localization will occur because people don't like globalization or homogenization. The European Union will therefore splinter and ultimately collapse. This new tribalism will drive city states, locally tailored products, economic protectionism, and the sale of flags.
3. Polarization: The future is an either/or kind of place with most things polarizing in some form or another. First there will be multiple futures, some of them speeding up and others slowing down. Some people with embrace technology, while others will reject it. Industrial markets will split between luxury and low-cost options, with access to services like health and education, transport, and security similarly polarizing, depending on your ability to pay.
The middle class will eventually disappear in most developed countries, with people either moving upwards into a new global managerial elite or downwards into a new enslaved working (or not working) class.
4. Anxiety: If 'they' don't get you, a global pandemic probably will. At least that's how many people will feel in the future. Trust in institutions will all but evaporate, and the speed of change will leave people longing for the past.
This insecurity is to some extent generational, but whether you are eighteen or eighty there will be a growing feeling of powerlessness and a continual state of anxiety that will fuel everything from an interest in nostalgia and escapism to a growth in narcissism, localization, and tribalism.
1. Globalization: Globalization used to mean Americanization, but these days it means exposure to people, products, and ideas from everywhere. Globalization impacts on the sourcing of products and services, and on market-expansion opportunities.
It also means connectedness and mobility. Everything from countries and computers to gadgets and global banking will be hyper-linked together. In the future, this trend will accelerate even faster, thanks to devices such as GPS, RFIDs, sensor motes, and smart dust (all essentially tiny wireless transmitters and/or receivers of some kind). Hence privacy will all but disappear, but transparency and risk may increase.
2. Localization: Localization (or re-localization) is a perfect example of a trend creating a counter-trend. Localization will occur because people don't like globalization or homogenization. The European Union will therefore splinter and ultimately collapse. This new tribalism will drive city states, locally tailored products, economic protectionism, and the sale of flags.
3. Polarization: The future is an either/or kind of place with most things polarizing in some form or another. First there will be multiple futures, some of them speeding up and others slowing down. Some people with embrace technology, while others will reject it. Industrial markets will split between luxury and low-cost options, with access to services like health and education, transport, and security similarly polarizing, depending on your ability to pay.
The middle class will eventually disappear in most developed countries, with people either moving upwards into a new global managerial elite or downwards into a new enslaved working (or not working) class.
4. Anxiety: If 'they' don't get you, a global pandemic probably will. At least that's how many people will feel in the future. Trust in institutions will all but evaporate, and the speed of change will leave people longing for the past.
This insecurity is to some extent generational, but whether you are eighteen or eighty there will be a growing feeling of powerlessness and a continual state of anxiety that will fuel everything from an interest in nostalgia and escapism to a growth in narcissism, localization, and tribalism.
5. Meaning: One of the most fascinating questions about the future is whether religion will be a victim or a beneficiary of change. Some people predict that faith will decline because the spread of information will undermine the mindset necessary to support belief.
Physics will produce a unified theory of everything and this will destroy old-fashioned superstitions such as religion. In other words, science will become our new religion. I'm not so sure. If science, technology, and complexity become key ingredients of the future, this will drive change and uncertainty.
And the more this happens, the more people will seek out safety, comfort, and guidance from religion. This could just lead to an increase in individual spirituality, but I suspect that globalization, mixed with a general feeling of powerlessness and anxiety, will drive group actions and beliefs.
Hence we will witness an increase in tribalism, nationalism, and xenophobia, which at the extreme will fuel Islamic fanaticism and muscular Christianity.
Physics will produce a unified theory of everything and this will destroy old-fashioned superstitions such as religion. In other words, science will become our new religion. I'm not so sure. If science, technology, and complexity become key ingredients of the future, this will drive change and uncertainty.
And the more this happens, the more people will seek out safety, comfort, and guidance from religion. This could just lead to an increase in individual spirituality, but I suspect that globalization, mixed with a general feeling of powerlessness and anxiety, will drive group actions and beliefs.
Hence we will witness an increase in tribalism, nationalism, and xenophobia, which at the extreme will fuel Islamic fanaticism and muscular Christianity.
"Physics will produce a unified theory of everything and this will destroy old-fashioned superstitions such as religion. In other words, science will become our new religion. I'm not so sure. If science, technology, and complexity become key ingredients of the future, this will drive change and uncertainty."
That is kind of sad actually. You would think that it would be the other way around wouldn't you? If science becomes so powerful and all the experiments have been proven to be correct then people will not wonder about physics, that is a given. But there will always be the question of, "Where do we go when we die and what happens to us?" No living science can tell us that.
Mythology was created long before Christ was born because people wanted answers to questions just as these. As long as there is an unknown there will always be a need for relgion and unless the living are also dead then religion will be there forever.
Excellent topic, G. I'm impressed on your knowledge of these things.
That is kind of sad actually. You would think that it would be the other way around wouldn't you? If science becomes so powerful and all the experiments have been proven to be correct then people will not wonder about physics, that is a given. But there will always be the question of, "Where do we go when we die and what happens to us?" No living science can tell us that.
Mythology was created long before Christ was born because people wanted answers to questions just as these. As long as there is an unknown there will always be a need for relgion and unless the living are also dead then religion will be there forever.
Excellent topic, G. I'm impressed on your knowledge of these things.
"The European Union will therefore splinter and ultimately collapse."
Isn't that a good thing?
Isn't that a good thing?
"but whether you are eighteen or eighty there will be a growing feeling of powerlessness and a continual state of anxiety that will fuel everything from an interest in nostalgia and escapism to a growth in narcissism, localization, and tribalism."
I like this line the best out of all of them because it shows how the human race always needs entertainment if you look at it the way I am. They say that the best medicine is laughter and that is because it lessens your anxiety. Narcissism is loss of hope or light at the end of the tunnel and escapism is just a need to be free, which in this case, we will need to be free from ourselves as a society.
I'll be waiting to what you say to this because I've been waiting for someone to make a topic of this intrest.
I like this line the best out of all of them because it shows how the human race always needs entertainment if you look at it the way I am. They say that the best medicine is laughter and that is because it lessens your anxiety. Narcissism is loss of hope or light at the end of the tunnel and escapism is just a need to be free, which in this case, we will need to be free from ourselves as a society.
I'll be waiting to what you say to this because I've been waiting for someone to make a topic of this intrest.
"race always needs entertainment if you look at it the way I am."
Well, Michael, sure this may apply to a section of people. But what percentage ? I really dont know. And dont you think that its a given fact that people may differ in their perceptions of identity, tastes and philosophies ? And these trends are always transient in nature and not necessarily orthogonal. I,personally, am moving away from parochialism. But yes there is no guarantee what future event and experience may transform this thought as well. I strongly feel that we really cant talk of numbers when trying to measure the general pulse of the movement of civilizations. When analysed year on year,the whole process of evolution may look too erratic and random. But perhaps if we look at the forces of change as a vector resulting from perhaps decades of conflicting movements of human thought and action, then you may hope to discover a "state" which looks so finely designed.
I really dont know what people want. I dont know what my parents wanted ( apart from known basic things ) and whether it had any tangible impact on such macro movements. I dont know what my friends want or whether they are intellectually aware of what their needs and wants are and what kind of implications their action/inaction might have. And I dont know what I want. Sure , entertainment is one.
Well, Michael, sure this may apply to a section of people. But what percentage ? I really dont know. And dont you think that its a given fact that people may differ in their perceptions of identity, tastes and philosophies ? And these trends are always transient in nature and not necessarily orthogonal. I,personally, am moving away from parochialism. But yes there is no guarantee what future event and experience may transform this thought as well. I strongly feel that we really cant talk of numbers when trying to measure the general pulse of the movement of civilizations. When analysed year on year,the whole process of evolution may look too erratic and random. But perhaps if we look at the forces of change as a vector resulting from perhaps decades of conflicting movements of human thought and action, then you may hope to discover a "state" which looks so finely designed.
I really dont know what people want. I dont know what my parents wanted ( apart from known basic things ) and whether it had any tangible impact on such macro movements. I dont know what my friends want or whether they are intellectually aware of what their needs and wants are and what kind of implications their action/inaction might have. And I dont know what I want. Sure , entertainment is one.
"I strongly feel that we really cant talk of numbers when trying to measure the general pulse of the movement of civilizations."
Not neccessarily. Though the past can never prove the future it will always give us a good idea of what's to come. Predictions are meaningful in many cases. Meteorologists make a living off of predictions. The key is to use the scientific method and to test these theories. That will always be better than doing nothing because this way you have a way to be prepared.
"I dont know what my friends want or whether they are intellectually aware of what their needs and wants are and what kind of implications their action/inaction might have. And I dont know what I want. Sure , entertainment is one."
I can tell you that you want to fufill all of your needs. I think you can spend hours, days, or years determining what you want out of life but the fact that anyone can think about what they want just means they are satisfied and healthy for this reason: your needs are met. In the end, it's all about greed. There will always be a desire for something more.
Not neccessarily. Though the past can never prove the future it will always give us a good idea of what's to come. Predictions are meaningful in many cases. Meteorologists make a living off of predictions. The key is to use the scientific method and to test these theories. That will always be better than doing nothing because this way you have a way to be prepared.
"I dont know what my friends want or whether they are intellectually aware of what their needs and wants are and what kind of implications their action/inaction might have. And I dont know what I want. Sure , entertainment is one."
I can tell you that you want to fufill all of your needs. I think you can spend hours, days, or years determining what you want out of life but the fact that anyone can think about what they want just means they are satisfied and healthy for this reason: your needs are met. In the end, it's all about greed. There will always be a desire for something more.
"Globalization impacts on the sourcing of products and services, and on market-expansion opportunities."
Globalization may have its good points, as long as import products are of high (SAFE) standards and quality. Whatever happened to China for instance, and will this trend continue? I just wish (more) products were manufactured in my country, where standards are already excellent. I also wonder how much longer the corrupt child labor markets in such countries will hold the monopoly. One good thing i did hear recently; a few North American companies have already stopped buying such imports due to the on-going/criminal child labor.. *all products in stock were destroyed. i hope this trend continues.. (So maybe 'Localization' will be as much a need, as a want.)
'hyper-linked' does makes the world even smaller than it is, but privacy issues should be always be paramount. i'm wondering how different countries will be able to set different standards. I know Canada already had to pull the plug on something it didn't want to be included in.
"The middle class will eventually disappear in most developed countries, with people either moving upwards into a new global managerial elite or downwards into a new enslaved working (or not working) class."
This is really scary, and already happening in some respects. The middle-class sect truly is the "balancing" fulcrum.
"One of the most fascinating questions about the future is whether religion will be a victim or a beneficiary of change."
I think religion and sprituality will more or less part their ways for good, not that one has to neccessarily mean the other. "The veil is lifting" ..already. The steady trend toward greater awareness, philosophy, our own inner growth; greater interest in mysticism keeps growing and growing. Base religion is harder to predict. Will the extremists continue to corrupt its greater meaning, til it all but means nothing? So who knows, maybe "Christianity" more or less, will survive many other religions, by 'Default.
LUVED this awesome topic, Gaurav! Thx! .. =)
Globalization may have its good points, as long as import products are of high (SAFE) standards and quality. Whatever happened to China for instance, and will this trend continue? I just wish (more) products were manufactured in my country, where standards are already excellent. I also wonder how much longer the corrupt child labor markets in such countries will hold the monopoly. One good thing i did hear recently; a few North American companies have already stopped buying such imports due to the on-going/criminal child labor.. *all products in stock were destroyed. i hope this trend continues.. (So maybe 'Localization' will be as much a need, as a want.)
'hyper-linked' does makes the world even smaller than it is, but privacy issues should be always be paramount. i'm wondering how different countries will be able to set different standards. I know Canada already had to pull the plug on something it didn't want to be included in.
"The middle class will eventually disappear in most developed countries, with people either moving upwards into a new global managerial elite or downwards into a new enslaved working (or not working) class."
This is really scary, and already happening in some respects. The middle-class sect truly is the "balancing" fulcrum.
"One of the most fascinating questions about the future is whether religion will be a victim or a beneficiary of change."
I think religion and sprituality will more or less part their ways for good, not that one has to neccessarily mean the other. "The veil is lifting" ..already. The steady trend toward greater awareness, philosophy, our own inner growth; greater interest in mysticism keeps growing and growing. Base religion is harder to predict. Will the extremists continue to corrupt its greater meaning, til it all but means nothing? So who knows, maybe "Christianity" more or less, will survive many other religions, by 'Default.
LUVED this awesome topic, Gaurav! Thx! .. =)
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